Brexit is so passé, what’s the next unexpected event?
After the initial shock of Brexit, the overall impact has been more favourable than feared. Survey data on consumer products and producer confidence as well as the housing sector have partly rebounded after steep initial drops. Financial markets too have recovered quickly and riskier assets have not been overly penalised. Indeed, Brexiteers can already be heard crying victory, berating the doom-mongering amongst the economic and political establishment.
However, we should not get complacent. Sterling is much weaker than before the referendum and the impact of Brexit will take a long time to play out. Shorter term, there are three events on the horizon which could cause short-term volatility globally and, if underestimated by the market, could cause a flight to safety:
- The U.S. presidential election on 8 November
- The Italian referendum on 4 December
- A mid-December Fed rate rise
Read our Global Market Outlook fourth quarter report to find out our views on:
- the potential impact of these events and how to manage the risks
- the main drivers of market returns
- asset class returns going forward
For those of you like me that want just the soundbites, here’s our two-page summary.
For more details, visit our Global Market Outlook page.